I have an index fund worth $700k and live on about $30k a year. My share of the rent is $13,000 per year. In 10 years, I’ll be eligible for a pension of about $28k. I’m worried about losing my job in the next couple of years. If I take $30k a year from my index fund for the next 10 years, will I run out of money before my pension kicks in? I was hoping to use the fund to add to my pension, but I’m unsure if I’ll still have anything left after 10 years. I’ve looked at some financial apps, and it seems like it might work, but I’m still not sure. Any advice?
Statistically, the numbers support it. Even if you drain the $700k in 10 years, you’ll still have your pension, which reduces the risk of running out of money. I’m retired using the 4% rule, and if I were in your situation, I’d feel comfortable retiring now.
A pension? You’ve already won the game.
Mai said:
A pension? You’ve already won the game.
Agreed.
Just remember, while US public equities have been strong recently, they’re not immune to big corrections. For example, the S&P 500 dropped over 55% from 2007 to 2009. Having a more diversified portfolio beyond just stocks can offer some protection in case of such downturns.
@Harley
Or consider using leverage. If you need $30k for living, you could sell $60k worth of ETFs. Use $30k for living, and invest the other $30k in a 2x leveraged S&P 500 ETF. This way, you stay fully invested in the market while only paying a small amount of ‘interest.’ After crashes like in 2000 and 2008, the market usually starts recovering in about 5 years. I keep 2 years of cash to handle downturns and 3 years of leveraged ETFs. I prefer this approach over keeping my money in low-growth bonds or dividend stocks. If bond rates rise significantly, I might consider a 2-year bond ladder, but with savings accounts offering the same yield as bonds, it doesn’t make sense to hold any bonds right now.
You’re not considering health insurance in your plans. Without insurance, healthcare can be very expensive, or you’ll pay a lot just to get insurance.
I wouldn’t recommend this for several reasons. First, you’ll end up using a large portion of your savings. If something unexpected happens, you might not have enough money. Second, the amount you’re planning to live on is pretty low, especially in the US, where that doesn’t go very far. I’d advise against retiring with so little. I know people who retired with little savings, and they regret not having more. Lastly, if a recession or other economic downturn happens before you’re eligible for your pension, it could eat into your savings faster than expected. You don’t want to be in a situation where you have to go back to work after several years of being unemployed.
@Vernon
His situation is low-risk. He’s withdrawing only 4.2% of his savings, and in 10 years, his pension will cover all his living expenses. Even if he just sold everything and kept the money in cash, he’d still have $400k after 10 years. Of course, there’s inflation, but he can invest in T-bills or TIPS, which should help offset most of it. He’ll still have at least $200k after 10 years. Some people prefer retiring early with fewer luxuries, which is a fair trade-off.
@Ren
We’ll just have to agree to disagree. This is a risky plan, and a market downturn at the wrong time could really hurt. Retiring on an income that’s close to the poverty level is more than just sacrificing luxuries. It’s about not having enough to live comfortably.
I’m worried about unexpected expenses, combined with a few years of bear markets. The pension really helps reduce your risks, but if something major comes up with your expenses, you might regret not working a bit longer.
Are you in the US? What’s your plan for healthcare? I don’t think COBRA lasts forever, and private insurance can be expensive. If you don’t have insurance, you could end up spending a lot of your savings on medical costs. That’s my biggest concern about retiring early — health insurance. The ACA could be an option for now, but you might make too much to qualify. Just something to keep in mind.
Is your money in a retirement account or a taxable one? If it’s in a taxable account, you might want to consider investing in high-yield ETFs like PBDC (9% yield) or JEPQ (10% yield). Reinvest the dividends to build it up quickly. With $300k in those funds, you could generate enough income to cover most of your living expenses. If you lose your job, you can stop reinvesting and live off the income. If you don’t lose your job, you can keep building the funds.