Thought I was doing well… 90% up over 4.5 years… but now I’m second-guessing

@Kei
Risk is a part of any investment—not just Sharpe ratio.

@Bailey
Look up Sharpe Ratio:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp

Everyone looks like a genius when the Fed pumps out trillions and starts a bull run.

Nico said:
Everyone looks like a genius when the Fed pumps out trillions and starts a bull run.

Tell that to those who sat out 2023, certain a recession was coming.

Fox said:

Nico said:
Everyone looks like a genius when the Fed pumps out trillions and starts a bull run.

Tell that to those who sat out 2023, certain a recession was coming.

Same folks were saying that in 2022 too.

Fox said:

Nico said:
Everyone looks like a genius when the Fed pumps out trillions and starts a bull run.

Tell that to those who sat out 2023, certain a recession was coming.

Did someone say recession? cries in recession-less years

Fox said:

Nico said:
Everyone looks like a genius when the Fed pumps out trillions and starts a bull run.

Tell that to those who sat out 2023, certain a recession was coming.

Started trading in June. Every week since, ‘the top is in… recession next week.’

Nico said:
Everyone looks like a genius when the Fed pumps out trillions and starts a bull run.

Tell that to people I know who only save cash.

@Jo
Just get silver bullets. They work for inflation and werewolves.

I’m up 75% overall, and my main stock account alone is up 136% over 3.5 years. You’re doing well too!

Noe said:
I’m up 75% overall, and my main stock account alone is up 136% over 3.5 years. You’re doing well too!

Thanks! I was just hoping I’d outperformed the S&P… but yeah, adding more funds over time means my return should be above 90%.

@Bailey
4.5 years is just a blip. You could have just bought Costco and Microsoft and beaten the S&P out of pure luck.

Freeman said:
@Bailey
4.5 years is just a blip. You could have just bought Costco and Microsoft and beaten the S&P out of pure luck.

Well, technically, the infinite monkey theorem requires infinite monkeys, not just a million.

@Mica
Fair enough. I assumed they had unlimited time. Same result.

At least you’re not in the red like some folks on the day trading forums.

That would’ve been a better choice, but you could diversify more. Large-cap US stocks are great, but mix in small-cap, international, and bonds for a complete portfolio. A diverse portfolio is safer, even if all risks aren’t equal.

@Jael
Good way of looking at it, thanks! Mine’s a mix of ETFs, bonds, and a few stocks I think will do well.

Every brokerage has a tab that shows how your performance stacks up against the S&P.

You’re making money? My 401k barely ever beats the S&P, thanks to fees.

The S&P is good general advice. It’s hard to consistently beat it, so why not spend that time on something else you like?