I’ve noticed products getting smaller every year—changing sizes, altering formulas, turning chocolate into chocolate-flavored, and more.
Does this kind of shrinkflation get factored into the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflation?
It feels like true inflation might be higher if we include these changes in size and quality.
What do you all think?
Yes, it’s accounted for. CPI measures price per unit, like grams or ounces, not just by ‘bag’ or packaging.
Flynn said:
Yes, it’s accounted for. CPI measures price per unit, like grams or ounces, not just by ‘bag’ or packaging.
Exactly. People have been talking about shrinkflation for decades. It’s not like product sizes are vanishing into thin air. People didn’t leave stores in the 70s carrying 30-kilo chip bags.
@Quince
It’s more about rebranding. For example, cereal ‘Family Size’ boxes used to be 24 oz but are now 18 oz, and companies market the old size as ‘Mega Size’ now.
@Quince
The air in chip bags makes it worse. If you pack chips like you’re filling a suitcase, maybe you’d get 11–12 kg, but that’s just the air in action.
Flynn said:
Yes, it’s accounted for. CPI measures price per unit, like grams or ounces, not just by ‘bag’ or packaging.
Yep, it’s about weight, not just the packaging size.
Wait until you hear about hedonics and substitutions in CPI calculations.
Fintan said:
Wait until you hear about hedonics and substitutions in CPI calculations.
Try finding ice cream where the first ingredient is actual cream. It’s getting rare in stores.
@Harlem
I’ve been searching for real pesto with olive oil and pine nuts for years. Most of what’s sold now is just a cheaper imitation.
Micah said:
@Harlem
I’ve been searching for real pesto with olive oil and pine nuts for years. Most of what’s sold now is just a cheaper imitation.
Costco used to have it, but even their pesto doesn’t use olive oil anymore. A shame.
@Harlem
Thanks for checking. Pine nuts are rare now, too, and they’re healthier than the replacements. A lot of pesto doesn’t even use basil anymore. It’s just not the same.
Micah said:
@Harlem
I’ve been searching for real pesto with olive oil and pine nuts for years. Most of what’s sold now is just a cheaper imitation.
They’ll just use canola oil and tell us to like it.
@Dez
Canola oil comes from rapeseed, mostly grown in Canada. It was developed to remove harmful erucic acid, and its neutral flavor makes it versatile. It’s fine for some uses, but I get why olive oil is preferred for pesto.
Your focus might be off. Pre-1980s CPI used home prices, but now it uses Owner-Equivalent Rent (OER). Housing is at an all-time high, and mortgage rates are around 7%. If we used older methods, inflation might show as 10% at its peak instead of the reported 2.5%. Housing costs are a huge part of people’s expenses, so that’s why inflation feels higher.
@Ren
Do you have a source for the pre-1980s CPI calculations?
Jamie said:
@Ren
Do you have a source for the pre-1980s CPI calculations?
Check Wikipedia. They explain the shift in methodology clearly: United States Consumer Price Index - Wikipedia.
Also, here’s a New York Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/technology/inflation-measure-cpi-accuracy.html
@Ren
The article mentions questionable sources like Shadowstats and Tucker Carlson. They aren’t reliable.
Jamie said:
@Ren
The article mentions questionable sources like Shadowstats and Tucker Carlson. They aren’t reliable.
The CPI adjustment data comes from a peer-reviewed journal, the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Those names are mentioned in the article for context, not as primary sources. Also, common sense says housing costs should impact inflation more since they’re at historic highs.
Once you see what’s excluded from CPI and how often the ‘basket of goods’ changes, you might not take it seriously anymore.
Here’s a helpful explanation if you’re curious: “What is CPI, and what exactly does it measure?”
@Ash
Instead of guessing, look up how it’s done. Changes in size or quality (like smaller juice containers) are tracked through substitutions in the methodology: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/data.htm.