AMD, AVGO, QCOM, ARM, ASML all lost 7-10% in the past month. Even TSM is down 4-5%. I can’t find a good explanation online. ‘Global chip sales in Q3 totaled $166B, rising 23.2% YoY and 10.4% QoQ, with the Americas leading growth again with a 16.7% QoQ increase.’ Is it because they surged earlier this year and people are just taking profits? Will there be a strong recovery in 2025?
Nobody can point at something in the news and claim it explains all the behavior of the market.
Two things drive the market. Fear and greed. The balance between them keeps shifting. Optimism moves the market. So does anxiety.
@Linden
Yep, that’s the simplest and most honest explanation. People love finding ‘reasons’ for market moves, but at the end of the day, it’s just fear and greed pulling in opposite directions. The news often just tries to explain what already happened.
Nvidia earnings and the wait-and-see approach was a big factor. Now that they’ve reported, I don’t really understand the response. Maybe they want Nvidia to say their next chip turns air and electricity into palladium, and gold is a byproduct. That might keep the stock price flat.
@Flynn
Well, if it did that, the question would be at what rate and how much electricity it costs. If it took the power of a small city to produce 1g over 100 years, I doubt it would affect the stock price much.
@Flynn
I’ve been saying for years that Nvidia is priced for insane growth. To keep the stock going up, Nvidia actually needs to achieve the crazy things you’re talking about. A decline is inevitable.
Cassian said:
@Flynn
I’ve been saying for years that Nvidia is priced for insane growth. To keep the stock going up, Nvidia actually needs to achieve the crazy things you’re talking about. A decline is inevitable.
Well, then you missed the run-up in the last few years 
@Val
Yeah, but at some point, what goes up must come down. I’d rather miss a single stock surge than risk getting in right before the crash. I’m fine with my indexes.
Cassian said:
@Val
Yeah, but at some point, what goes up must come down. I’d rather miss a single stock surge than risk getting in right before the crash. I’m fine with my indexes.
And that’s YOUR risk and comfort level. Which is totally fine. I get annoyed when people here act like their risk tolerance and strategies are the only right ones.
I could point out how much money I’ve made. I could show off my holdings. I could brag about my crypto fountain in the backyard.
But I went with MY risk profile. Is it the same as everyone else’s? No. But let’s stop talking about what could’ve or should’ve happened. You could’ve made a fortune or faced a huge market crash — or will.
These are just outcomes of your risk profile. People need to stop acting like their approach is the gospel. That’s too many contradictory beliefs.
Cassian said:
@Val
Yeah, but at some point, what goes up must come down. I’d rather miss a single stock surge than risk getting in right before the crash. I’m fine with my indexes.
It might still go up, just more slowly.
Source of funds during a market rotation.
White noise. TSM is down about 7.5% from its local peak. Earlier this year, TSM dropped 23+% from a local peak in the summer and had other drops over 7.5% this year. These stocks are volatile. If this level of movement isn’t in your risk profile, there are other options.
Maybe a reaction to possible tariffs?
West said:
Maybe a reaction to possible tariffs?
But this should affect all companies. Many companies are hitting new all-time highs and should be affected too.
West said:
Maybe a reaction to possible tariffs?
But this should affect all companies. Many companies are hitting new all-time highs and should be affected too.
Tariffs could actually help the biggest companies. They’ll have the capital and power to adjust, while smaller companies might struggle or get bought out.
@Nick
Tariffs could impact semis more, especially with restrictions on selling advanced tech to China.
Stocks are more about future expectations than past results. People are worried about whether these companies can hit their growth targets, especially with new issues like tariffs.
Might be that a lot of SEMI investors are moving to places like bitcoin.
All this is just irrelevant noise. TSM is ready to take off in the next few years as they bring more manufacturing online. This also reduces their geopolitical risk by spreading manufacturing outside Taiwan. Personally, I’m very bullish on them.