Tesla is overvalued… should it be shorted?

For years, Tesla’s stock has been driven by promises of technological breakthroughs and visionary leadership. But if you compare it to BYD, the numbers tell a different story:

  1. BYD is outselling Tesla globally

    • In 2022, BYD sold about 1.86 million new energy vehicles, while Tesla delivered 1.31 million.
    • BYD’s lineup covers a wider range, from budget-friendly EVs to commercial buses, securing a larger global market share.
    • Even Charlie Munger said, “BYD is so much ahead of Tesla that it’s almost ridiculous.”
  2. BYD is vertically integrated, Tesla still relies on suppliers

    • BYD makes its own batteries, including the innovative blade battery, giving it better control over costs and production.
    • Tesla still depends on CATL, Panasonic, and LG for battery supply, and its in-house 4680 cells haven’t delivered major breakthroughs yet.
  3. Tesla’s battery tech isn’t actually ahead

    • Despite the hype, Tesla’s energy density improvements aren’t significantly better than BYD’s.
    • If Tesla doesn’t maintain a clear technological edge, is its premium valuation really justified?
  4. Tesla’s stock is built on hype, not fundamentals

    • Robotaxis, full self-driving, and energy storage—all still speculative.
    • BYD isn’t just making cars—it’s supplying batteries to competitors, including Tesla itself.
    • If sentiment shifts from future promises to actual financials, Tesla could see a major correction.

So, should Tesla be shorted?

  • BYD is leading in sales, tech, and production scale.
  • Tesla’s reliance on outside suppliers weakens its position.
  • Market hype can’t hold forever—fundamentals will eventually matter.
  • Global anti-American sentiment and backlash against Musk could accelerate the decline.

Given all this, Tesla’s current valuation makes no sense. It might be time for the market to wake up.

Source: Tesla sales drop 63% in France

Is it absurdly overvalued? Yes.

Has the stock been pumped by false promises and misleading claims? Yes.

Will shorting it bankrupt you because fundamentals don’t matter? Also yes.

Chen said:
Is it absurdly overvalued? Yes.

Has the stock been pumped by false promises and misleading claims? Yes.

Will shorting it bankrupt you because fundamentals don’t matter? Also yes.

People have been calling Tesla overvalued since 2013. Many have lost money shorting it. OP, don’t be the next one.

Chen said:
Is it absurdly overvalued? Yes.

Has the stock been pumped by false promises and misleading claims? Yes.

Will shorting it bankrupt you because fundamentals don’t matter? Also yes.

I have a friend who made money shorting Tesla. He also said it was the most stressful trade of his career and he’d never do it again.

Tesla trades more like a meme stock than a normal company. Logic doesn’t apply.

Leif said:
Tesla trades more like a meme stock than a normal company. Logic doesn’t apply.

What happens when sales collapse? This feels like another tulip mania.

Azar said:

Leif said:
Tesla trades more like a meme stock than a normal company. Logic doesn’t apply.

What happens when sales collapse? This feels like another tulip mania.

Could happen, or Musk could make another wild promise and people would buy in again.

@Leif
So basically, I need to start a grift market?

Azar said:
@Leif
So basically, I need to start a grift market?

Tesla stock isn’t about car sales. It’s a lottery ticket. Even if car sales hit zero, the stock could still go up.

Most of us have tried shorting Tesla at some point. It’s not worth the pain.

Tesla has been ‘overvalued’ a million times before. Short sellers keep getting burned.

Shan said:
Tesla has been ‘overvalued’ a million times before. Short sellers keep getting burned.

Didn’t Musk use Tesla stock as collateral for Twitter and AI funding?

Azar said:

Shan said:
Tesla has been ‘overvalued’ a million times before. Short sellers keep getting burned.

Didn’t Musk use Tesla stock as collateral for Twitter and AI funding?

Yep. Doesn’t matter. The stock doesn’t trade on logic.

Azar said:

Shan said:
Tesla has been ‘overvalued’ a million times before. Short sellers keep getting burned.

Didn’t Musk use Tesla stock as collateral for Twitter and AI funding?

Do you think any of that will stop people from buying in?

@Bryn
Honestly, the last decade has been people showing how unhinged they are.

‘Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.’ – John Maynard Keynes

Should it be shorted? Probably.

Is there an endless stream of dumb money buying it? Also yes.

Be careful.

Roan said:
Should it be shorted? Probably.

Is there an endless stream of dumb money buying it? Also yes.

Be careful.

How do I get in on this dumb money stream?

Tesla is overvalued, but you shouldn’t short it.

I’d short the hell out of it. They aren’t worth their valuation, and if China retaliates, it’s game over.

Alden said:
I’d short the hell out of it. They aren’t worth their valuation, and if China retaliates, it’s game over.

Exactly. Their sales in Europe are already down 63%. If they lose exports, what are they running on?